Microsoft word - china morning meeting minutes 081909 eng.doc

Analyst Express
Principal Market Indices
Gain/loss %
Comment on 2009 national basic pharmaceutical system and catalogue:
with the basic pharmaceutical system and catalogue unveiled, we prefer
markets of lower level and relevant pharmaceutical makers – Composite Index 2910.88 1.40
Outperform (Reiterate)
™ Event: Opinions on Establishing National Basic Pharmaceutical System, Measures for National Basic Pharmaceutical Catalogue (Provisional) and National Basic Pharmaceutical Catalogue (the section for supplies for health care intuitions of lower levels) (2009 Edition) were released on August 18 and this marks the formal start of China’s efforts to establish national basic pharmaceutical system. Major Futures
™ Content of the national basic pharmaceutical system is largely in line with Gain/loss %
expectations in terms of pharmaceutical production, purchase, use and ™ The national basic pharmaceutical system is further clarified in its content, ™ Our view: when products of pharmaceutical makers are included into the basic pharmaceutical catalogue, their sales volume will go up according on markets of Gain/loss %
lower level and producers’ profitability will be maintained or improved due to lower cost ratio and expense ratio and scale effect. As dispatching of basic pharmaceuticals will be carried out by pharmaceutical distributors with modernized logistics capability or other eligible enterprises. As such we believe that national or locally leading health care distributors such as CNMC (600511), Shanghai Pharmaceutical (600849), NanJing Medical (600713) and Accord Pharmaceutical Hong Kong Market
(000028) and heath care distribution division of Yunnan Baiyao will all benefit Turnover
(HK$ 100m) (HK$ 100m)
™ Traditional Chinese medicine. We believe that TCM makers that boast monopolized TCM products contributing considerably to revenue and gross margin or take up no huge share in distribution via hospitals will benefit more notably from this positive. And enterprises we pick out by these metrics includeYunnan Baiyao (000538), Qianjin Pharmaceutical (600479), Sanjiu Medical and Pharmaceutical (000999), Zhongxin Pharmaceutical (600329), Jinling Pharmaceutical (000919), Mayinglong Pharmaceutical (600993), Guangzhou Pharmaceutical (600332), Zhongheng Group (600252) etc. and enterprises whose TCM products as percent of their total products is huge and growth rate is expected to increase with sales volume of basic pharmaceuticals going forward: Tasly Pharmaceutical (600535). In addition, we also prefer Kangmei (600518) as consumption of herbal pieces prepared for decoction will go up when reimbursement ratio for herbal pieces will be raised gradually. ™ Chemical and biological pharmaceuticals. We believe that one can find relevant beneficiaries from the following aspects: I. enterprises with more products included into the basic pharmaceutical catalogue such as North China Pharmaceutical (600812), Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical (000522), Double Crane Pharmaceutical Note: PER and PBR are based on data from the (600062) etc. II. Makers boasting almost monopolized products or products with latest annual reports and market cap and turnover are based on the data on the last trading day. huge market share such as Double Crane Pharmaceutical with Jiangya 0# Source: CITIC Quantitative Investment Analysis System, Please refer to the Disclaimer and attached note on investment ratings at the end of this document (Compound Hypotensive Tablets),Baiyunshan with Cefixime (Ceftriaxone), North China Pharmaceutical with VB12, Fosun Pharmaceutical (600196) withanimal insulin and artemisinin, Huapont Pharmaceutical (002004) with Vitamin A acid and Humanwell High-tech Industry (600079) with alfentanil. III. Makers of API whose business will increase in line with expansion of market for chemical or pharmaceutical preparation such as North China Pharmaceutical, Tianyao Pharmaceutical (600488)etc. IV. Beneficiaries from vaccines under planned inoculation programmes such as Tiantan Biological Products (600161). Comments on SINOPEC’s acquisition of addax: with the acquisition accomplished, expectation of
overseas assets injection strengthened – Buy (Reiterate)
™ Event: SINOPEC (600028) announced that its parent company China Petrochemical Corporation had already accomplished acquisition of 100% stake in Addax, the Swiss oil company and undergone the delivery. This acquisition is the largest overseas acquisition project executed by Chinese company up to now. ™ Addax: an independent multinational oil company with huge potential. ™ Analysis of acquisition efficiency. As of June 24, price of Addax’s shares closed at US$ 48.96 with share capital at 157 mn and market value totalling US$7.24 bn. The 08 PE of this acquisition stands at 9X and PB at 2.95X. in 2008, It reported total revenue of US$3.762 bn and net income of RMB784 mn. Its operating cash flow stands at ~ US$1 bn per year. Its 06-08 cash flow came in at US$1.085 bn, 869 mn and 1.521 bn. In 1Q09, impacted by plunging crude price, Addax’s revenue went down over 50% (earnings similar to most oil&gas companies worldwide). Crude extracting cost stands at US$ 7.07 bbl, down 5%. ™ Acquisition further optimizes the structure of the group’s overseas oil&gas resources and the Listco (the Company) is highly sensitive to assets injection. According to our calculation, irrespective of natural gas, up to now, the group’s share of crude output beyond China amounts to ~12.34 mn tonnes, equivalent to ~28.6% of the Company’s current crude output. If these assets are injected into the Company, its upstream resources supply will be enhanced significantly and profit margin will be improved notably. ™ Risk factors: drastic movement of crude price; geopolitical risks for overseas oil&gas exploration. ™ Earnings forecast and rating. SINOPEC (09/10EPS: RMB0.74/0.87; 09/10PE: 17/15X; Last price: RMB 12.64; PT: Offshore Oil Engineering (600583): 2009 interim results comment: posted record high workload but
with mounting cost pressure – Buy (Reiterate)
™ Slightly lower than expected performance mainly due to lower gross margin. In 1H09, the Company posted operating income of RMB6.066 bn, operating profit of RMB514 mn, net income of RMB 434 mn, up 84.0%, 29.6% and 46.3% respectively. EPS came in at RMB 0.13, slightly lower than our expectation. Faster growth of operating costs (99%) than that of revenue mainly accounts for the counter’s lower than expected performance, leading gross margin to further drop to 11.44% (by 6.85%) and rapidly mounting costs are mainly due to increase in rental for extra vessels resulting from soaring workload. ™ 09 workload is well ensured. CNOOC’s target of accomplishing 50 mn cubic meters and Bohai 30 mn cubic meters oil and gas equivalent will provide sufficient workload for the counter. In 1H09, the Company posted record high workload over the same period in history with 35 large/medium projects underway concurrently. As such, there are still ~RMB1.37 bn construction fee for projects in progress unsettled. In addition, we predict that the counter is still communicating with the party outsource their construction projects to it regarding connected transaction and compensation due to changes of factor prices. We thus believe that there is still room for its profit margin to improve going forward and satisfactory 09 performance can still be expected. ™ Projects under construction are well underway. ™ Potential risks: risk of slower than expected capacity release, risk of continual sluggishness for oil&gas industry, risk of shrinking gross margin of the counter and risk of uncertain time for recognizing revenues of its projects. ™ Earnings forecast and rating. Offshore Oil Engineering (09/10EPS: RMB 0.53/0.65; 09/10PE: 20/16X; Last price: Market Update:
Top 5 Gaining Sectors on A Share
Hong Kong Market
On Tuesday, HK market was volatile. HIS fell below 20000 in the morning session. The market recovered driven by HSBC (00005.HK) and Li&Fung (00494.HK). HIS closed at 20,306, up 0.8%, and HSCEI advanced 0.5% to close at 11,448. Intraday turnover came in at HK$71.5 bn. China stocks presented mixed performance. Auto sector led the advancement, up 0.9%, among which Greatwall Motor (02333.HK) Top 5 Losing Sectors on A Share
jumped 9.1%. Real estate, energy and raw material sectors, which had suffered the most the day before, were among the best performers, up 0.5% on average. Consumer products, health care and transportation sectors all recorded huge loss, down ~1-2%. As for individual stocks, AirChina (00753.HK), which announced to acquire stake in Cathy Pacific(00293.HK) from CITIC Pacific (00267.HK), fell 2% z A-share Market
On Tuesday, Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2910.88, up 40.25 or 1.40%, A Share Market
and Shenzhen Component index closed at 11773.30, up 104.50 or 0.90%. Turnover on the exchanges came in at RMB 180.201 bn. Stock indices were drastically volatile yesterday. The two markets opened lower and staged two rounds of rebound. The first rebound saw resistance at 2900. In the afternoon, individual stocks performed actively. Oil giants, steel and coal mining sectors pushed the markets to rebound again and close in positive territory finally. Steel plays became the main force driving the whole market to rebound with Overview of Sectors Covered by CITICS
90% steel stocks closing higher. Nonferrous metals stocks rebounded notably in the afternoon. Jien Nickel (600432) and Zhongjin Gold (600489) rose by over 6%.As of close, public utilities, nonferrous metals and steel sectors were the top performers while financial and real estate sectors performed poorly. Headlines:
China Securities Market
China initiates formally the development of National Basic Pharmaceutical ™ The new type of pension for farmers will be subsidized more by central Disclaimer
This research report is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities in any jurisdiction. The securities referred to in this report may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. The information contained in this report has been compiled by
CITIC Securities Brokerage (HK) Limited (formerly known as CITIC Capital Securities Limited) ("CSBHK") from sources that it believes to be reliable and (subject to
the next paragraph) the opinions, analysis, forecasts, projections and expectations contained in this report are based on such information and are expressions of
belief only and no representation, warranty or guarantee is made or given by CSBHK or any other person as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions and
estimates expressed in this report are (unless otherwise indicated) entirely those of CSBHK as of the date of this report only and are subject to change without notice.
Neither CSBHK nor its parent and affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this report
or otherwise arising in connection therewith.
The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report confirms that (i) all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (ii) that no part of his or her recommendation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views he or she expressed in this report. Any investment referred to herein may involve significant risk, may be illiquid and may not be suitable for all investor. The value of or income from any investment referred to herein may fluctuate and be affected by changes in exchange rate. Past performance is not indicative of futures results. This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors are expected to make their own investment decision without relying on this publication. Before acting on any advice or recommendation in this report, clients are recommended to consider seeking professional advice. CSBHK, its parent and/or affiliates and their respective officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may from time to time (1) have a consulting, investment banking or broking relationship with any company referred to in this report; and (2) have provided significant advice or investment services to the companies referred to in this report. One or more directors, officers and/or employees of CSBHK, its parent and/or its affiliates may be a director of the issuers of the securities mentioned in this report. If this report is being distributed by a financial institution other than CSBHK or its affiliates, that financial institution is solely responsible for distribution. Clients of that institution should contact that institution to effect a transaction in the securities mentioned in this report or require further information. This report does not constitute investment advice by CSBHK to the clients of the distributing financial institution, and neither CSBHK, its parent, its affiliates, and their respective officers, directors and employees accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from their use of this report or its content. This research report is strictly confidential to the recipient and is not intended for persons in places where the distribution or publication of this report is not permitted under the applicable laws or regulations of such places. This research report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior consent of CSBHK. All rights are reserved. Regulatory disclosures
No part of the analyst compensation was, is or will be directly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. CSBHK and each of its group companies that carry on a business in Hong Kong in investment banking, proprietary trading or agency broking in relation to securities have no disclosable financial interests in the stocks reviewed in this research report. CSBHK and each of its group companies that carry on a business in Hong Kong in investment banking, proprietary trading or agency broking in relation to securities have not received compensation from or mandated for investment banking services in the past 12 months to listed corporations whose stocks are being reviewed by CSBHK in this research report CSBHK and each its group companies that carry on a business in Hong Kong in investment banking, proprietary trading or agency broking in relation to securities do not have an individual employed by or associated with them serving as an officer of the listed corporation whose stocks are being reviewed by CSBHK in this research report CSBHK and each of its group companies that carry on a business in Hong Kong in investment banking, proprietary trading or agency broking in relation to securities are not market makers in the stocks reviewed by CSBHK in this research report. Further information on the securities discussed in this report is available upon request. Investment rating system
Performance of stock or sector relative to MSCI-China over next 6 months after research publications Relative performance over MSCI-China Index >20% Relative performance over MSCI-China Index 5% ~ 20% Relative performance over MSCI-China Index -10% ~ 5% Relative performance over MSCI-China Index > -10% Relative performance over MSCI-China Index >10% Relative performance over MSCI-China Index -10% ~10% Relative performance over MSCI-China Index > -10%



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Doctor’s orders

ISCHEMIC STROKE ORDERS WITHOUT ALTEPLASE (TPA) 1. Admit inpatient to :  Telemetry  Meridian 6 (satellite telemetry) OR if critically ill  to ICU  to CCU 2. Attending Physician: 3. Condition: 4. Code Status: 5. Allergies/Intolerances: 6. Diet :  NPO  Initiate nursing bedside swallow screen if po medications ordered. Ok to give po meds with sips

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